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WEATHER OUTLOOK  |  Philippines – December 15, 2017         

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #15
Tropical Storm Urduja

 

PAGASA SCIENCE GARDEN, Quezon City (DWDD) – Tropical Storm “URDUJA” remains almost stationary off the coast of Eastern Samar.

  Expected to make landfall over Northern Samar – Eastern Samar area between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

  Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

  Scattered to widespread rains will continue over Eastern Visayas and Caraga and is expected to prevail over Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas within 24 hours. Residents of these areas must undertake appropriate measures against flooding and landslides and coordinate with their respective local government and disaster risk reduction and management offices.

  Sea travel remains risky over the eastern seaboards of Bicol Region and of Visayas due to the approaching Tropical Storm.

 

Location of eye/center: At 7:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “URDUJA” was estimated based on all available data at 205 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (11.6 °N, 127.3 °E)
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 5 kph
Forecast Positions:  

·  24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 115 km Northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar(12.2°N, 126.3°E)
·  48 Hour(Sunday morning):In the vicinity of Calbayog City, Samar(12.2°N, 124.6°E)
·  72 Hour(Monday morning): 95 km West of Roxas City, Capiz(11.6°N, 121.9°E)
·  96 Hour(Tuesday morning):120 km North of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan(10.8°N, 118.7°E)
·  120 Hour(Wednesday morning):325 km West of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan(9.7°N, 115.8°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impacts of the wind
#2
(61-120kph expected in 24 hrs)
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran ->Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
->Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
->No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
->Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
->A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
->Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
->Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
->Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
->In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
->Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
->Rice and corn may be adversely affected
->Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
#1
(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)
Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Romblon, and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Capiz, Aklan, and Northern Iloilo Dinagat Islands ->Very light or no damage to high risk structures,
->Light damage to medium to low risk structures
->Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
->Twigs of small trees may be broken.
->Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

PAGASA/MCAG

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