Saturday, 24 June 2017
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WEATHER OUTLOOK | Severe Weather Bulletin #15



oct-20MANILA (DWDD) – “LAWIN” has slightly weakened while traversing Apayao province.

  • Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 400 km inner diameter of the 800 km diameter of the Typhoon while moderate to occasionally heavy rains elsewhere.
    • It is expected to exit the landmass via Ilocos Norte between 8-10 this morning (October 20).
    • Possible to exit PAR this evening (Oct. 20).
    • Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.
    • Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal elsewhere are now lifted.


Location of Eye/Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.)
In the vicinity of Kabugao, Apayao
Coordinates: 18.0°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 205 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 285 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 25 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: 24 Hour( Tomorrow morning): 495 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR)(20.5°N, 116.6°E)

48 Hour(Saturday morning):885 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(24.5°N, 114.6°E)

72 Hour(Sunday morning): 985 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(28.5°N, 118.0°E)

96 Hour(Monday morning):1,065 km North Northeast of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)(29.6°N, 125.0°E)


TCWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao Impact of the wind

(171-220 kphExpected in12 hours)

Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Ifugao and Calayan Group of Islands     • Very heavy damage to high–risk structures
• Heavy damage to medium risk structures;
• Moderate damage to low-risk structures
• Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
• Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows
• A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged
• All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation
• Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
• Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
• Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than  14.0 meters      Storm surge 2-3 m possible at coastal areas

(121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours)

La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and Northern Aurora     • Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
• Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk structures
• Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
• Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
• Almost all banana plants are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) >  14.0 meters      Storm surge possible at coastal areas

(61-120 kphExpected in24 hours)

Batanes Group of Islands, Pangasinan, Rest of of Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Northern Zambales     •Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
•Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
•Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
•A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
•Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
•Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
•Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
•Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
•Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters      Storm surge possible at coastal areas
(30-60 kph
Expected in
36 hours)
Rest of Zambales, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Rizal, Quezon Province including Polillo Island, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Metro Manila     •Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


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